Floridians and visitors have reason to breathe a little easier this summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, raising the probability of a below-normal season from 55% — the forecast issued earlier this year — to 75%. Only a 5% chance of above-normal activity remains on the table.
NOAA's National Weather Service now expects 7 to 13 named storms in total, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the full season. Two storms have already formed — Arthur and Bertha, both of which developed in the Gulf and made landfall in Louisiana. For context, a typical Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven of which reach hurricane strength and three of which become major hurricanes.
Even with the encouraging numbers, NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham offered a measured reminder: "Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated. That's why it's important to prepare for every storm that's projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength." The official hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, with peak activity typically arriving in early September.
For theme park visitors, it's worth keeping in mind that a significant storm could prompt temporary closures at Walt Disney World or Universal Orlando Resort, and Disney Cruise Line sailings may be adjusted or canceled if a hurricane threatens. This story was first reported by WDW News Today.
